Short List

This post will need to be short due to time available. One avenue to contemplate is the idea that some one or some thing on MH370 was wanted not to arrive at the intended destination. This would suggest particular person(s) or object(s) of high value or great cost should the arrive in Beijing. One thing that disturbs me about that idea is that I would think either persons or property would more easily be diverted before the aircraft left the runway. I still think that this is more likely than a lot of other suggestions, but to make it work for me, it would require that the decision to take action would have to have been made after takeoff. Now if that was the case, it wouldn't leave much time to marshal the resources and execute the plan to divert, which suggests to me that it would need to be no more than a slight modification of a well thought out and perhaps even practiced contingency plan ready and waiting for implementation. And to bring this post to an early end, I think the planing, communications (or their absence in this case) and logistics suggest a very short list of possible groups that might be involved.

So, to continue with my thoughts on the missing plane. Again, these are loose thoughts as the blog title suggests, so they aren't very well organized, but I think I was contemplating my own criteria for evaluating the possibilities. I had left off with the odd situation where no serious attention seemed to have been paid to the situation for an unusually long period of time. With a good understanding of the potential damage and the speed of such craft, having one missing for even a quarter of an hour would suggest a serious threat, and should have brought all available resources to the task of finding it. That wouldn't necessarily mean that it would be found, of course. What to make of the various reports? Well, I suppose it depends in part upon the source, doesn't it? Just perhaps the general public is a little on the lazy side and finds it easier to simply tune in the television and listen to the 'experts' who are presented between advertisements. In addition, for reasons that I continually fail to understand, people are willing to accept the 'official' reports issued by government agencies. There is the concept of misinformation and any person or group is capable of supplying or promoting it. I don't think it is unreasonable to ask where their true interest might be. It did seem to me that some of the 'information' that became available came from sources that just could have gained from confusion. Some of the 'conspiracy' theories make note of the British owned American leased Island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. If, as again some reports suggest, the early departure from the planed course was toward the west, it could suggest a number of possibilities for an alternate destination, among the list would be Diego Garcia. Some say that it is a major listening post for electronic intelligence, some say that it is a major military base able to service even aircraft carriers and submarines, and some say that it was even one of a small number of alternate landing sites for the space shuttle program. I've never been there, but if those reports are true, it would certainly suggest to me that they would first of all have the most sophisticated of surveillance capabilities and a very good reason to be attending to them with absolutely no interruption. In addition, any and all military vessels would have every reason to be interested in the traffic on under or above the surface. It just doesn't make any sense to me that a 777 could go flying around without anybody noticing it. I would think that anything traveling at high speed in their general direction would have required a response or at the very least an alert condition. Its one of those "If not, why not?" questions. And how could I be expected to believe some weak answer like, "It was someone's birthday so everyone had the night off." or something similar. Could it be that it was noticed, that it was tracked, that its identity and course were known? I'm kind of thinking that there would be few situations where a plane could head in the direction of a remote military base without being intercepted and probably destroyed. Again it is time to take a break, but to end that thought I'm thinking that planes going to or returning from secret missions might not be broadcasting their identity or location and still not be shot down because they were expected.

What Happened?

I'm not writing this so as to cause grief to any one not deserving of it, and its always a possibility that this would include everyone. I am simply wondering here about what could have happened to MH370, the flight that seemed to have vanished from its intended path from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. I'm not a commercial pilot or a radar technician or anything like that, so I have no relevant experience in any area that might help solve the mystery. I am approaching the question more from the angle of writing an interesting fictional story. What really did happen? I haven't the slightest clue. What could have happened is a sea of possibilities I suppose. I should think that one of the prime considerations is that "the suspension of disbelief" not be taxed beyond the breaking point for the audience. It seems like the idea of bringing in aliens from other worldly space craft to dematerialize the airliner and its passengers would likely leave the reader resentful. So, I'm thinking of limiting the possibilities to a soup of those which have at least some sort of historical precedence, not specifically related, but perhaps by their spirit. And I would like to avoid a long chain of one in a billion chance technical malfunctions that have a probability less than the alien space craft encounter. Actually, I'm more of the mind that asking others to accept such an idea as "there were a very large number of radar screens that surely had information, but they were either turned off or the operators were not watching" just doesn't sound believable. To me, it would be more credible if I was told "the operators on duty that night were kidnapped by commandos in black helicopters", for it is easier to believe in an orchestrated act, even a highly complex one, than spontaneous wide spread incompetence of the scale necessary. There are a large number of theories concerning what might have happened, and a quick search for them will give you plenty of reading, so I won't deal with them here. I would like to address some thoughts I have regarding what I think should be considered in evaluating any of them. First off, a lot of speculating has been done concerning the notion that in some fashion one or both of the pilots may have been involved in some kind of suicidal plot. Of course, I did not know either of them, but I have known a lot of pilots, and my impression of the captain is that of a very dedicated professional, one of those who probably dedicated his life to the profession, probably from an early age. I believe he was one who was "all about flying", enjoyed it immensely, took great pride in his skills, and though he might have been approaching retirement, I can't see him deliberately charting a nine hour flight to nowhere. The co-pilot seems to me perhaps a bit of a playboy type, not uncommon among the pilot fraternity, who may have enjoyed the status and perks of the job a bit more than the actual flying, but still I see him as one who envisioned an entertaining and mostly enjoyable future. Again, he just doesn't seem the type to sit quietly as his plane is flying off to the bottom of the Indian Ocean. To me, I would expect that a pilot, even supposing he was intending something of a suicidal nature, would more likely try a few crazy stunts along the way. Perhaps something like a few loops around the Penang bridge, or trying to fly between the Petronas Towers would better fit the character of self destructive pilots. It still remains a possibility, and it would make for a more simple story at least up to the point where you investigate the psychology behind such a scenario. It also doesn't rule out the possibility that either or both of the pilots had some sort of involvement in the disappearance for some other reason. I would be comfortable with the assumption that either one could have had the required knowledge of the aircraft, the radar and communications systems and the flying skills necessary, but to involve either of them seems like it would require some sort of extraordinary incentive. I can't see it as something that could occur on a very short notice. If it were to have been a situation involving planing by either of the pilots, it would be hard for them to avoid leaving a clue regarding what they might do after the mission, or what they wouldn't be doing? It does seem at least possible that there could have been some sort of cascading electrical failure, perhaps caused by a neutron upset that led to a latch-up that caused cascading havoc, but it requires too great a stretch to imagine such a failure could affect everything but the plane's ability to continue flying for several hours, as many believe. Off to another set of questions: Airplanes like a 777 are quite expensive, true, but the value of one acquired by nefarious means is of little value, as every single part of it is easily identifiable, and the cost of keeping it hidden would very quickly surpass its value. It seems to me that anyone contemplating, much less, preparing a plan to steal a plane would know the costs and simply place an order for a new one. The number of people required to receive and conceal a 777 is not small. Keeping them quiet would only be easy if they were so dumb as to participate and not expect to be extinguished directly after their work was done. The waters surrounding Malaysia have been very busy for a very long time, day and night there are ships of all sizes and descriptions traveling them. All of these and likely others would have radar systems to keep them aware of traffic on, under, or above the surface. How could it be that NONE of them noticed anything. Come to think of it, shortly after the first suspicion that the plane had gone off course, I would have thought that the word would quickly spread and all of them would be busy looking for it. It seems very odd to me that the operators of the airline wouldn't be begging everyone for a sighting, or radar contact, or some kind of help in locating it within a very short time...fifteen minutes at the extreme. But its been suggested that it flew for several hours without detection. This post is getting long....I'd better continue it later.

The real issue...

I really think I've heard all I need to regarding the situation with law school lifestyle. But what is the real issue here? I would suggest that the base purpose of what ever style of birth control one might choose is chosen essentially as an insurance policy against the possibility of an inconvenient pregnancy. No, many of us if not most of us engage in behaviors that have a possibility of unpleasant result for which we might choose to insure against. Many of us drive cars, and pay dearly for an insurance policy. Some buy houses that they insure against the possibility of fire or flood...I think the comparison is fair. But if the government is going to insist that everyone contribute to the pregnancy insurance of who ever wants it then it seem equally reasonable that they should also contribute to my automobile insurance policy.

Government's role should be providing for the common defense... defense of persons and their property....not for insurance, especially against the possibility of an un-welcome result of an individual's choice of personal conduct.

First item

Hello, just a short test here...